Marine Le Pen appeal verdict: Why this moment matters for France

Marine Le Pen will find out on Tuesday whether or not she can run for the French presidency in next year's elections, when a Paris appeal court decides at 13:30 (11:30 GMT) whether to uphold an embezzlement conviction against her.

Le Pen, the 57-year-old leader of National Rally, has already run for president three times and came second to Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and 2017.

With under 10 months to go before the vote, she leads in the polls. If she does not run her, young lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, will stand in her place, so the verdict could have far-reaching consequences for France.

This appeal verdict will decide Le Pen's political future and in effect fire the starting pistol on the presidential race. The first round is on 18 April 2027, and the run-off is on 2 May.

She was barred from holding public office for five years on 31 March 2025 when a court found her guilty of embezzling €1.4m (£1.2m) in European Parliament (EP) funds to pay her own party employees from 2004-16 instead of parliamentary assistants. Le Pen was a member of the EP (MEP) from 2004-17.

She was also given a four-year jail term, two suspended and two to be served at home with an electronic tag.

Le Pen was found to have either approved or to have tolerated the fake jobs scheme, and the verdict ruled her out of the 2027 election.

During the appeal, heard in January and February, Le Pen denied organising the scam but did admit to "a mistake" that led to some parliamentary aides working "for the benefit of the party".

Prosecutors want the original five-year ban on public office to stand, with a four-year jail term now including one year served with an electronic tag and three years suspended.

Le Pen says she is not afraid of the decision, but believes it is "not possible" to run for president if the judges decide she must wear a tag.

The youngest daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2011 Marine took over the leadership of the far-right National Front he had run since 1972, with a mission to "detoxify" his brand. Eventually she broke with her father entirely in 2015, expelling him from the party over his views on the Holocaust.

Three years later, she rebranded the party Rassemblement National - National Rally (RN) - and although she was twice defeated by Emmanuel Macron for the presidency, in 2024 she steered RN to its best-ever election performance, with a hard-right alliance of 143 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

She has painted herself as a victim of French justice, singled out for a "difference in treatment" from other leaders whose parties were found guilty of fraud.

But the judges in the original trial found she had "authoritatively and with determination embraced the system established by her father", and that she was "at the heart" of the fake-jobs scheme.

Acquittal: If Le Pen is acquitted, she will be clear to run for the presidency with her reputation intact. This verdict is seen as unlikely.

Guilty: If the court finds her guilty and bars her from office for more than two years (from 31 March 2025), she will not be able to stand. That is because the clock has continued ticking since the five-year ban on public office was handed down.

Guilty with reduced ban: It would be a different story if she were handed a ban on public office of two years or less as she would then be free to run.

Guilty with electronic tag: If the court follows the recommendation of prosecutors and the four-year jail term remains, she would face one year with an electronic tag, rather than two, with the rest suspended. That is why she has set out her stall ahead of the verdict: "When you are a presidential candidate you must be completely free to move about… I can't rely on a judge to allow me to hold a rally or go to a market."

Appealing against the appeal: She could still challenge a guilty verdict at France's top court, the Court of Cassation - and she would have 10 days to decide. But that would still take several months and hold her back from campaigning - and she has indicated she would not do so.

Even if she is cleared, prosecutors might decide to go to the top court.

Le Pen has spoken of being calm ahead of the verdict, and of fear not being a feeling she is familiar with. But she acknowledges that being barred from running would "undoubtedly be painful".

"Whatever happens I won't be dead, whatever happens I'll continue to fight for my ideas," she told news channel LCI. The difference would be that she would become a mere activist, not a presidential candidate.

On Tuesday night, after the verdict has sunk in, Le Pen will make her intentions clear to French TV on the main 20:00 TV news programme.

Ever since 2022, Jordan Bardella has led National Rally as party chairman, having become part of Le Pen's campaign team in his early 20s in 2017.

After her conviction for embezzlement last year, it became clear Le Pen would need a Plan B and eventually she anointed Bardella as her stand-in candidate.

At the weekend, Bardella told supporters: "I want to reiterate my total support, my total friendship, and that I'm committed to her in politics, to see her elected president of the republic."

Le Pen said that, if she were president, then Bardella would be prime minister, but she was prepared to hand the role to him "if justice bars me from standing for the presidency", vowing to support him with "great energy, great conviction and great confidence".

The RN message for voters is one of unity, but the idea of a Plan B now appears to be so accepted that Bardella is already doing marginally better than she is in latest polls, placing them both at above 30% for the first round.

Political opponents have mocked the idea that Le Pen will simply leave Bardella alone, and they also believe she would present a far bigger threat than him in a second-round run-off, because of his relative lack of political experience. Bardella turns 31 in September.

Conservative Republicans candidate Bruno Retailleau quipped a few months ago that in Emmanuel Macron the French no doubt loved having a 40-year-old president: "You'll certainly adore having a president of 30."

Twelve of the original 25 RN party members on trial were found guilty in March 2025, and 12 appealed against their convictions.

They include Louis Aliot, RN vice-president and mayor of Perpignan, who was handed six months' jail with an electronic tag, and Nicolas Bay, former secretary general of the National Front, also given a six-month term with a tag.

Another National Front figure, Bruno Gollnisch, was given a year with an electronic tag, while Catherine Griset, a former close aide of Marine Le Pen, was barred from public office for two years.

Wallerand de Saint-Just, a former National Front treasurer, was given a one-year jail term under an electronic tag.