Tasirin Arewa ta Tsakiyar Najeriya a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa

Zaɓen shugaban ƙasa a Najeriya na ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da ke ɗaukar hankali a fagen siyasar ƙasar.

Ƴantakara kan baza komarsu wajen gudanar da yaƙin neman zaɓe a sassan kasar daban-daban domin jan hankalin masu kaɗa ƙuri'a.

Ɗaya daga cikin yankunan ƙasar da yansiyasa suka fi mayar da hankali a kansa shi ne Arewa ta Tsakiyar ƙasar.

Yanki ne da ke taka muhimmiyar rawa a zaɓen shugaban ƙasar, wanda shi ne na uku bayan arewa maso yamma da kudu maso yamma a yawan masu kaɗa ƙuri'a.

Waɗanne ne jihohin yankin?

Arewa ta Tsakiyar Najeriya ya ƙunshi jihohi shida da ke da ɗimbin masu kaɗa ƙuri'.

Jihohin da ke yankin su ne Neja da Nasarawa da Benue da Folato da Kwara da kuma Kogi.

Abin da ya sa ake kiransa Arewa ta Tsakiya shi ne jihohin yankin na tsakiyar ƙasar, kuma yankin ya yi iyaka da kusan duka sauran ɓangarorin Najeriya.

Yanzu haka babu ɗantakarar shugaban ƙasa ko mataimaki da ya fito daga wannan yanki a ƙarƙashin manyan jam'iyyun ƙasar huɗu.

Lamarin da ya sa yankin ya zama fagen farauta ga duka jam'iyyun a zaɓen 2027 da ke tafe.

Mene ne tasirin yankin a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa?

Arewa ta Tsakiyar Najeriya yanki ne da ke ƙunshe da tarin ƙabilu da yaruka daban-daban.

Addinin Musulunci da na Kirista su ne manyan addinai biyu mafiya tasiri a yankin.

Kuma addini na taka muhimmiyar rawa a zaɓen shugaban a wannan yankin.

Kodayake kawo yanzu babu wasu sabbin alƙaluma daga hukumar INEC game da yawan masu rajistar zaɓe a ƙasar, kasancewa ba a jima da kammala sabuwar rajistar masu zaɓe a ƙasar ba, alƙaluman hukumar na 2023 sun nuna cewa yankin na uku a yawan masu zaɓe a ƙasar.

Alƙaluman 2023 sun nuna cewa yankin na da yawan masu zaɓe miliyan 15,363,731.

Yanki ne da ke ƙunshe da jiga-jigan ƴansiyasa da ake damawa da su a siyasar ƙasar.

Jihohin da suka fi tasiri a yankin

Jihohin da ke kan gaba a yawan maso zaɓe a yankin su ne Filato wadda alƙaluman INEC na 2023 suka nuna cewa tana yawan masu rajistar zaɓe miliyan 2,789,528.

Daga jihar ne kuma shugaban jam'iyyar APC mai mulki, Farfesa Nentawe Yilwatda ya fito

Sai kuma jihar Benue mai yawan masu rajistar zaɓe miliyan 2,777,727.

Daga jihar ne kuma shugaban jam'iyyar adawa da ADC, Sanata David Mark ya fito.

Sai kuma jihar Neja, wadda ke da yawan masu rajistar zaɓe miliyan 2,698,344, kamar yadda alƙaluman INEC na 2023 suka nuna.

Wace rawa yankin ke takawa a zaɓen shugaban ƙasar?

Farfesa Yahaya Tanko Baba, Malami a Sashen Kimiyyar Siyasa na Jami'ar Usmanu Danfodio da ke Sokoto, kuma mai sharhi kan al'amuran siyasar ƙasar, ya ce yankin arewa ta Tsakiyar Najeriya ya yi fice wajen ɗaukar hankali a zaɓukan shugaban ƙasa.

Ya ce ɓangare ne muhimmi ga zaɓen shugaban ƙasar, la'akari da yawan masu zaɓe da ke yankin, musamman mabiya addinai daban-daban da ƙabilu da yaruka daban-daban.

''Idan aka yi la'akari da yadda zaɓuka ke gudana a Najeriya, mun san yadda addini da ƙabilanci ke taka rawa wajen yadda mutane ke kaɗa ƙuri'a'', in ji shi.

Masanin siyasar ya ce Arewa ta Tsakiyar Najeriyar na daga cikin yankunan ƙasar da addini da ƙabilanci ke taka rawa a zaɓukan ƙasar.

''Ko shakka babu addini zai yi tasiri a wannan yanki a zaɓen 2027, musamman idan aka yi la'akari da zaɓen 2023''.

''Mun ga yadda hakan ta faru a 2023 lokacin da Peter Obi na LP a wancan lokaci ya samu ƙuri'u masu yawa a yankin saboda yawan Kiristoci'', in ji shi.

Malamin jami'ar ya ce kasancewar duka manyan jam'iyyun ƙasar huɗu ba su da ɗantakarar shugaban ƙasa ko mataimaki daga yankin, jam'iyyun za su mayar da hankalinsu a yankin wajen farauto masu kaɗa ƙuri'a.

''Kasancewar yankin ne na uku a yawan masu kaɗa ƙuri'a dole ne ƴantakara su mayar da hankali ga yankin'', kamar yadda ya yi ƙarin haske.

Ya ƙara da cewa yanki ne da babu ɗantakarar da yake da tabbas a cikinsa saɓanin sauran yankunan ƙasar.

''A siyasance dama yankin yana fuskantar koma-baya wajen samar da ɗantakarar shugaban ƙasa ko mataimaki, kuma hakan ya sa yankin ba shi da wata jam'iyya ɗaya da ta fi ƙarfi a cikinsa'', kamar yadda ya yi ƙarin haske.

David Mark ko Nentawe: Wane ne zai yi tasiri a 2027?

Shugabannin manyan jam'iyyun ƙasar biyu, APC da ADC duka daga wannan yankin suke, don haka ne ake ganin kamar za su yi tasiri a zaɓen 2027 ga jam'iyyun nasu.

Farfesa Tanko Baba ya ce ko shakka babu kowannensu zai yi tasiri wa jam'iyyarsa a zaɓen na 2027.

''Idan ka duba shi David Mark, tsohon gwamna ne a yankin ƙarƙashin mulkin soja, sannan ya yi shugaban majalisar dattawan ƙasar har sau biyu, gogaggen ɗan siyasa ne da ya san dabarun cin zaɓe''.

''Zai yi amfani da wannna dama wajen nuna wa mutane yankin cewa idan jam'iyyarsa ta kafa gwamnati, to kamar yankin ne ya kafa, domin za a tafi da shi a gwamnatance'', in ji shi.

''A gefe guda shi ma shugaba APC, Farfesa Nentawe zai yi amfani da damarsa wajen gamsar da al'ummar yankin cewa gwamnatin APC ta fifita yankin wajen ba su manyan mukamai a gwamnati'', in ji malamin jami'ar.

Ya ƙara da cewa APC za ta bugi ƙirji da cewa sakataren gwamnatin tarayya, wanda tsohon gwamna ne, tsohon sanata daga yankin yake, kuma shi ma zai taka rawar gani don kawo wa jam'iyyarsa na APC ƙuri'un yankin.

Gwamnonin yankin na APC ne: Shin za su yi tasiri?

Duka gwamnonin jihohin yankin shida ƴan jam'iyyar APC ne, wani abu da wasu ke ganin zai taimaka wa APC wajen yin tasiri a yankin.

To amma Farfesa Tanko Baba ya ce ba haka batun yake ba, domin a cewarsa yanzu a Najeriya gwamnoni sun daina tasiri a zaɓukan shugaban ƙasa a jihohinsu.

''A baya gwamnoni kan yi tasiri a jihohinsu, idan aka zo zaɓen shugaban ƙasa, amma daga 2023, wannan tunani ya sauya, mun ga yadda gwamnoni da yawa suka kasa kawo wa jam'iyyarsu jihohinsu a zaɓen na 2023'', in ji masanin siyasar.

Malamin jami'ar ya ce a zaɓen 2023 an ga yadda Tinubu, wanda ɗan asalin jihar Legas ne kuma tsohon gwamnan jihar, ya kasa samun nasara a jihar, duk kuwa da cewa jam'iyyarsa ta APC ce ke mulkin jihar.

''Saboda a haka gwamnoni sun yi tasiri, amma yanzu alƙaluma sun canja, don haka babu wani tasiri da gwamnonin za su yi a zaɓen shugban ƙasar'', in ji shi.