China cancel tariffs for all African countries except one - Wetin e mean

China go scrap tariffs for all African countries from Friday – except Eswatini, wey maintain ties wit Taiwan.

As of December 2024, China bin don already implement duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African nations. Di policy now dey cover 53 countries and go be in place until 30 April 2028. E neva dey clear wetin go happun afta dat.

Beijing boast say na dem be di first major economy to offer unilateral zero-tariff treatment to Africa.

But analysts tok say while China dey seize di chance to enhance dia soft power, dem make am clear say most times, tariffs no be di real challenge for exporters for Africa wey get huge trade deficit wit China.

Big imbalance

"China don position dia sef as di trade liberaliser and Africa-friendly economic partner, in contrast to Donald Trump and di US," Lauren Johnston, one senior research fellow for di AustChina Institute tok.

America bin hit some African nations wit tariffs of up to 30% for August last year, although most of dem now dey subject to 10% tariff, afta di US Supreme Court strike down many of di duties.

Di expansion of China zero-tariff regime go fit increase African agricultural exports, wey go "help to increase rural incomes, improve rural productivity, and ultimately reduce hunger and poverty", Johnston tok.

But Sino-African trade dey marked by one growing imbalance for China favour, wey mean say Chinese exports to Africa plenty pass African exports to China, and di difference big.

Last year, Africa trade deficit wit China rise by 65% to about $102bn.

Africa exports to China include minerals and raw materials, like crude oil and metallic ores.

Currently, China main trading partners for di region include Angola, wia dem dey get oil, di Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa.

However, consistent duty-free regime across di continent fit result in uneven gains, Johnston tok.

More developed, industrialised economies like South Africa and Morocco go dey better positioned to expand exports, she tok.

On dia own, di zero-tariff policy no address di continent-wide needs for economic restructuring and infrastructure upgrading, Jervin Naidoo, one political analyst for Oxford Economics Africa add.

"Many African economies still dey face structural constraints like limited industrial capacity, weak logistics, plus reliance on raw commodity exports, wey tariff reductions alone no fit address," e tok.

Alfred Schipke, director of di East Asian Institute for Singapore, agree say short-term economic impact "go dey modest and e go dey concentrated for African countries wey already get export capacity".

"Ova di long term, however, di potential fit dey more meaningful, especially if African countries fit expand production, diversify exports, and move up di value chain," Schipke tok.

Amit Jain, anoda Singapore-based expert for China-Africa relations, tok say changing consumer demand for China fit open up new markets for African producers. For instance, Chinese consumers dey buy more coffee and nuts now dan 20 years ago.

Economist Ken Gichinga agree.

"Dis new measures go improve access to Chinese markets, e go close trade deficit and expand opportunities for African companies to prosper," e tell BBC.

"For Kenya, e go be big boost to certain subsectors like avocado. Na di agriculture sector go benefit di most - macadamia nuts, coffee, tea and leather."

Africa fiscal policy economist Wangari Kebuchi say short-term support for foreign exchange earnings and "a modest boost to agriculture, mining and logistics sectors" dey welcome - but medium and long-term fiscal gains no go materialise from market access alone.

"Di structural problem neva change. Africa go continue to export raw materials and import manufactured goods. Dat asymmetry dey drive trade deficits, e dey affect domestic revenue mobilisation, and limit di jobs and tax base wey govment need to fund public services.

"Zero tariffs on commodities wey don already comot our shores unprocessed no go solve dat problem. African govments must now ask di harder questions. How we go take use improved market access as leverage for industrial policy?"

Why dem leave out Eswatini?

Di analysts believe say di exclusion of Eswatini na political move wit limited economic impact.

In fact, Jain believe say dis "fit even help Eswatini win even more economic bo from Taiwan".

Di landlocked nation for southern Africa dey among di 12 countries wey get diplomatic relations wit Taiwan, wey Beijing see as a breakaway province wey go eventually dey "reunited" wit China.

Many pipo for Taiwan, one self-governed island, consider demsefs as part of di sovereign nation.

Last month, Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te gatz cancel one trip to Eswatini afta three oda African countries – Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar – stop im aircraft from flying ova dia territories.

Taiwan bin accuse dem say dem do am under "intense pressure" and economic coercion from China.

By sidelining Eswatini, China don "weaponize dia ties wit African countries, and show how relations wit China na wit strings attached", Wen-Ti Sung, one political scientist wit di Australian National University Taiwan Centre.

"China wan show di world how dem dey treat dia friends, versus Taiwan friends," e tok

Additional reporting by Basillioh Rukanga for Nairobi