Monthly Outlook

Unsettled weather will continue into the first half of next week, with some chillier days, but the first half of April should become drier and warmer as high pressure becomes more dominant. However, there are signs of a possible cooler turn later in April.

Changeable. Strong winds possible this weekend

The second half of this week will see unsettled conditions across the UK with up and down temperatures from day to day. On Wednesday a weakening band of frontal rain will slowly move south-eastwards but most of the associated rain will be across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

England and Wales will be largely cloudy with a little patchy drizzle but mostly dry. Thursday should have a lot of dry weather but plenty of cloud before wet and windy conditions develop across the UK during Friday.

Even stronger winds could develop during the Easter weekend, with gales possible across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland as a vigorously deepening low pressure circulation approaches. There'll be some heavy rain, and it could also turn wet in Wales and the north and west of England as a frontal system edges across. Southern and eastern England may stay dry until late in the day or overnight.

Sunday will be a chillier and showery day, with frequent and often wintry showers across northern and western Scotland. Sunny spells could be interrupted by sharp showers elsewhere. Southern and eastern England should see the fewest showers and the most sunshine.

Wetter in the north and west than south and east.

The most likely pattern throughout next week is for the semi-permanent Azores High to try to extend towards western Europe at times, while high pressure anomalies also build over eastern Europe or southern Scandinavia. Atlantic low pressure systems should tend to track farther north, between Scotland and Iceland, but associated frontal systems will probably still swipe through the UK at times, mostly impacting the north-western UK.

As a result of this set-up, northern and western regions of the UK should be wetter and occasionally windier than southern and eastern areas. The former should have more precipitation than normal, especially in Scotland and Northern Ireland, while southern and eastern England could be a bit drier than usual, although that does not preclude occasional outbreaks of rain.

Temperatures will mostly be above average, with frequent south-west to westerly flows, but there will be occasional chillier north-westerlies in between frontal systems, mostly affecting Scotland where some wintry showers will still be possible at higher elevations.

Drier. Mostly mild. Possibly turning cooler later

During and beyond the middle of April, high pressure is most probably going to position itself near or across the UK at times, which should mean widely drier than normal weather developing, or at least seasonal amounts of rainfall at most. There is a risk of Atlantic frontal systems trying to bring more rain in if the high pressure were to be weaker or positioned even a little farther east.

Initially, this pattern should ensure above average temperatures overall, but with chances of some chilly and foggy nights in places when conditions become calm and clear.

Later in the month patterns become very uncertain but high pressure should still feature in some shape or form. However, there is a chance that the strongest high pressure anomalies could eventually become positioned at higher latitudes, either towards Iceland Greenland or across Scandinavia. Its exact position will dictate temperatures but there is at least a chance of some cooler air filtering in from the north.

Any significantly cold weather is a low risk but temperatures in some areas could average closer to seasonal values, more likely across the north. This shift in the pattern could allow low pressure systems to approach the UK from the south, eventually leading to chances of wetter weather.

Friday's update should confirm – or otherwise – the expected high pressure developments through April, and the outlook will extend into the start of May.