Monthly Outlook

Much of the UK should become quieter towards the weekend as high pressure builds nearby, with lighter winds, drier spells and some chilly, locally foggy nights.

Northern Scotland remains most exposed to Atlantic rain at first. Next week may stay predominantly settled, but an isolated area of low pressure to the south could bring rain into southern Britain.

Confidence then falls towards late October, when more widespread Atlantic rain and stronger winds become possible. Temperatures should generally be near or a little above average.

Unsettled then potentially drier later

Further showers and rain are likely across northern and western Scotland on Thursday and Friday. A weakening front could also bring some cloud and patchy rain elsewhere, followed by brighter and cooler weather.

Through the weekend, high pressure should extend across much of the UK, bringing lighter winds and more widespread dry spells. Northern coasts may still see a few showers, while clear skies overnight could allow mist or fog to form, with chilly mornings in sheltered inland areas.

Often settled, rain in south possible

High pressure is likely to remain close to the UK through much of the week, so many areas should enjoy long dry intervals and relatively light winds. Sunshine may be mixed with low cloud, mist or fog, particularly in the mornings. However, the pattern may be less straightforward in the south.

A small, slow-moving area of low pressure could move westwards near the English Channel or southern England, bringing thicker cloud and spells of rain to parts of southern England, and perhaps south Wales. Some locations could remain dry throughout, depending on its exact track.

Scotland and Northern Ireland may avoid much of this southern rain, although weak Atlantic fronts could occasionally brush the far northwest. Temperatures should generally be near or slightly above the seasonal average by day, but clear, calm nights could still be chilly with fog and a touch of frost in sheltered rural spots.

The chief uncertainty is the positioning of high pressure and any cut-off low to its south. If the low stays over the continent or well south of the UK, the settled pattern may dominate almost everywhere.

If it edges farther north or west, rain could spread across more of southern Britain, possibly accompanied by a cooler easterly breeze. A separate shift of high pressure west into the Atlantic would also allow cooler northerly winds and showers.

Most probably drier than normal for many

The final days of October could still feature high pressure near the UK, with dry and relatively calm weather in many places. However, confidence is low and an alternative sees the Atlantic frontal zone dipping farther south, bringing rain and brisker winds more widely, particularly to western and northern Britain.

Southern and eastern England may hold on to longer dry periods if high pressure remains close, while a ridge farther west or north could also allow a brief cooler spell.

During the opening week of November, Atlantic low-pressure systems may become more influential, increasing the chance of wetter and windier spells, initially across western and northern areas but perhaps spreading more widely. There remains a credible alternative in which high pressure persists and much of the UK stays relatively settled. The timing of any change is therefore uncertain.

Temperatures are still more likely to average near or a little above normal than markedly below, although passing cooler spells, chilly nights and fog remain possible. There is no strong signal at present for a sustained early-season cold outbreak. Confidence in the details is low beyond the coming week.

In Friday's update, we will review whether the potential cut-off low brings a more significant rain risk to southern Britain next week, and whether Atlantic fronts return later in October.