Uzbeks to beat DR Congo? The reality of Scotland's qualification mental gymnastics

Scotland fall to narrow defeat against Morocco

Scott Mullen
BBC Sport Scotland at Boston Stadium

"Are we wanting Uzbekistan to beat DR Congo?"

Life following Scotland at the World Cup isn't all partying, traffic cones and baseball. It's mental gymnastics and watching games from home at daft o'clock not quite sure what the best outcome is.

Defeat by Morocco on Friday has left the Scots' most likely route out of the group being as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but you'd need a degree in mathematics, statistics and clairvoyance to know what other results are best.

But in the absence of any of those, let's have a crack at working out what Scotland need to do - or need to happen - anyway.

Just beat Brazil on Wednesday

Sounds easy when you put it like that.

A victory over the former world champions on Wednesday would propel Steve Clarke's side on to six points, guaranteeing at least second spot in the group.

Although they overwhelmed Haiti on Friday, the Brazilians looked tame in their opening draw with Morocco.

But they are ranked sixth in the world while Scotland are 40th. Let's just skim over that detail.

History isn't on the Scots' side in Miami, either. They nations have faced each other 10 times, with eight wins for Brazil and just two draws, the last in 1974.

Still, the spirited second half against Morocco, and the chances that were created, will offer hope amid the pain in Boston before the Tartan Army travel to Florida.

Would one point be enough for Scotland?

Right now, the stats experts at Opta have calculated that Scotland have a 73.5% shot at making it out of the group. That's good, right?

Eight of the best third-placed teams will make it through, and four points would almost certainly guarantee a place in the last 32.

The problem comes if Scotland suffer a heavy defeat in Miami.

After two games, they sit on three points with a goal difference of zero. If they remain on three after the Brazil game, that will slip to -1 at best.

Of the other groups with two rounds of fixtures completed - granted there are only two of them - their third-placed teams are on just a single point.

However, both of them have to still play the team sitting bottom, meaning it may well be they finish on four points. Still with us?

History suggests that a -2 goal difference and three points might be enough for the Scots. Having said that, the expanded tournament, and the now vastly different standard of teams, may well cause havoc in predicting it.

Ultimately, Scotland are looking for the bottom seeds in each group to not win any games, but not take a tanking off the team who finishes third.

Big decisions went against Scotland

Who might Scotland's last-32 kingmakers be?

We're now getting into the realms of the ridiculous, but here goes...

At the time of writing, Scotland are the best third-placed team and the only one with three points. But the massive caveat is that not many teams have actually played two games yet.

Ecuador, Panama, Senegal, Jordan, and Turkey are all on zero points, with Ecuador currently squeezing through. So you'd think these groups represent the best shot of producing a lowly-ranked third place team.

Could England do their old rivals Scotland a favour by beating Panama and Ghana comprehensively?

What about Lionel Messi's Argentina and Austria both thrashing Jordan? That would be helpful, please.

Even if the Bostonians could have a word with the US team on Scotland's behalf to beat Turkey, that would be nice.

This may all change, but here's a group by group guide:

  • GROUP A: Czechia and South Africa to draw their last game

  • GROUP B: Bosnia and Qatar to draw their last game

  • GROUP D: Scotland fans will want Turkey and Paraguay to draw and both not win their final games

  • GROUP E: Ecuador and Curacao to take something from each other. Both are on zero, with Ecuador still to face Germany. Goal difference could be key

  • GROUP F: Plenty of draws please. Scotland want teams to avoid hitting four points, but it's hard to predict. This may be a lost cause for a team finishing third on three points

  • GROUP G: This one is so hard to predict given all teams started with a draw. Ideally two teams don't win any more games

  • GROUP H: Same as above. Best shot most likely Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia who still have to play each other

  • GROUP I: Scotland want Senegal and Iraq both not to win their second games. If both lose then it would be excellent for the Scots

  • GROUP J: The Scots will be hoping the top two of Argentina and Austria keep winning, similar to above. Jordan and Algeria the ones scrambling on zero points just now

  • GROUP K: Congo's draw with Portugal has made this a tricky group. Scotland probably want Portugal to regain form, Congo to lose to Colombia and then draw with Uzbekistan, who then need to lose to Portugal

  • GROUP L: England to win their remaining games and for a team - probably Croatia - to take control of second

Where will Scotland end up playing?

If you thought the above was confusing, strap in...

The Group C winners will head to Houston, Texas, where they will face the runners up of the Netherlands-Sweden-Japan group. It would take a remarkable set of results for that game to involve Scotland.

Claim second spot and Clarke's men are off to Monterrey in Mexico - this time against the winners of the Netherlands-Sweden-Japan section.

The more likely outcome will be Scotland finishing third and getting through. In that outcome, there are - wait for it - 495 different permutations which will decide where Scotland end up.

It is most likely that they will face the winner of Group E, which looks likely to be Germany, back at Boston Stadium, on Monday, 29 June (21:30 BST).

A second route already has the opponent confirmed - Mexico in Mexico City at 02:00 BST on Wednesday, 1 July.

The third route would see them face the winner of Group I, in which France and Norway both won their opening match, at the New York/New Jersey Stadium on Tuesday, 30 June (20:00 BST). That is the least likely of the three.

There's just the small matter of getting the right result against Brazil first. Easy peasy.

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